Rosehill tips: Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

The Daily Telegraph’s form analyst Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances across nine races at Rosehill meeting on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 3, No.5: CAESARS PLACE

Race 5, No.1: SNOWZONE

BEST VALUE

Race 9, No.12: EXPAT

SHAYNE’S BEST

Race 9, No.7 BRING THE RANSOM

Race 7, No.5 COSTELLO

BEST VALUE

Race 1, No.6: RAGING BULL

RACE 1: BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HANDICAP (1400M)

Ron Dufficy: I’m going with Cape Breton. I think he is a typical Chris Waller improver at this time of year. He got the job done at the midweeks first-up and I can only see him getting better at 1400m being by Vancouver. Royalzel is the danger. He is a horse that I thought did enough at his two starts; the blinkers go on and a little bit of jar out of the track should help him. Sinba was impressive winning his debut then he just found the older horses a little bit tough at the mile so he will go better against his own age. Best of the rest is Raging Bull who could surprise.

Shayne O’Cass: Good movie Raging Bull, Duff, and from what we saw in the trials, he is a horse with a future. He does look like that typical David Payne two-year-old that will train on to be a nice Guineas/Derby type but 1400m at home is just far enough to give him a shot at winning. I know the stablemate, Tympanist, is 100’s but he is definitely better than his last start.

Race 2: TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1100M)

Dufficy: I am a Nicci Trix fan. She is a three-year-old filly showing very good talent. She handles all conditions and turned in a great trial since her last win and is a good prospect. Patino Ruby was terrific first-up at 1200m and 1100m is much more suitable. Kattegat has two impressive trials wins recently so looks ready for this and had good Highway form last preparation.

O’Cass: Have to wait until Bathurst on Tuesday for Smuggler’s Bay if he doesn’t make the cut here Duff. Tommy Berry was on him and Foxie La Belle so he pretty much had all bases covered – one with blinding speed, the other a barnstormer. Foxie La Bella should still get a fast run race that will give her the chance to reel them in. Foxie’s stablemate King’s Trust was a certainty beaten at Wagga on Cup Day.

RACE 3: BISLEY WORKWEAR HANDICAP (1800M)

Dufficy: I am really keen on one at odds here – Caesars Palace. I think he is the value runner of the day. He has always promised and is finally delivering as a gelding now. He has got a little bit of form around the favourite Too Much Caviar here and there should not be that much between in the market. Wicklow, the price has gone, but he is a young import with a big future. Good Omens in another good roughie. He had to switch course a few times last start and has more to offer. Too Much Caviar is well found but has upside.

O’Cass: Like you Duff, I was staggered Wicklow went up $8 with the TAB on Wednesday at lunchtime. He was $3.40 by afternoon tea and fair enough too. Loved his trial, his win at Newcastle was super impressive and he is at home over 1800m from a very favourable draw. Concur about Caesars Palace, Always On Show is the lightweight chance of the race.

Oscar Zulu (right) will be fitter for his first-up run and looks hard to beat. Picture: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph

RACE 4: FUJITSU GENERAL HANDICAP (1400M)

Dufficy: Oscar Zulu was never really balanced first-up but very good. He should come on from that run and prove hard to beat. Key is at big odds here. I can’t understand how she went up $51. She was in the worst part of the track first-up in very fast time; she is worth a speck. Astrero is an improving three-year-old in good hands and I can’t knock a winner. Tycoonist is backing up from running a good race last week and you have to include him in a race like this.

O’Cass: Oscar Zulu was smashed in the betting first-up but was never going to beat Count De Rupee once they found their positions. Kudos to the winner but Oscar Zulu went enormous. Barrier 4, Tommy Berry, fitter, etc. Tycoonist, he’s easy to find and just as easy to like. Scream And Shout is the danger, one of them anyway, but he has to make the field yet.

RACE 5: ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1200M)

Dufficy: I am quite keen on Snowzone. He needed the run first-up and was another one in the wrong part of the track there. He gets the claim now and strips fitter and just maps so well. Royal Banquet is usually good fresh, handles all conditions, and is a must include. Jailbreak gets favours from barrier one/on-pace. Rammstein doesn’t want it too wet so with it only being a Soft 5 at this stage, he could be there for a long way.

O’Cass: I am a sucker for a good trial so I just have to be with the race-callers nightmare – Matowatakpe who reminds me of another Bjorn Baker-trained sprinter in Music Magante; in the looks department anyway. Granted, Matowatakpe was underwhelming at best in the last campaign but he was so good in that trial that we have to wipe the slate and start over again. If it was a Good 4, it would be a deadset Baker exacta here but I am worried what a Soft track does to He’s A Hotshot.

RACE 6: THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1500M)

Dufficy: I think Love Tap should improve second-up at this distance. Getting back over 1300m didn’t suit him first-up. I think he might be top pick here. Zing was very good first-up and does improve second-up. She looks the main danger. Air To Air has been frustrating but drops in class here. She is going to win another one shortly. As for Great House, the yard report is vital for a horse like him with only one trial but he is talented. The market could be the guide.

O’Cass: Duff, I agree, I thought Love Tap did enough when he resumed. It was hardly his Grand Final. That said, I am a Great House man up until, and if, he happened to blow like a hurricane in the betting. If he gets a good tempo, he might just run over the top of them like he did one day here when he became a boom horse. Zing looks hard to beat from barrier 3 second-up.

Love Tap looks well placed to return to winning form. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 7: XXXX WINTER CUP (2400M)

Dufficy: I found this very tough but I am leaning to Knight’s Order. He had good support second-up and went much better. He makes his own luck right on top of the speed and is ready to win. Stockman has to back-up three weeks running but is right in this if he holds his form. Parry Sound is very likeable but I just need to see him run through the line. The Good Fight is the forgotten horse here. He appears good odds after a big win in New Zealand last time and stays well.

O’Cass: Costello has run three times at 2400m for a win, a third and a seventh, that was in the ATC Derby but he was only beaten five-lengths and there were 10 others behind him at the post. Fast forward to more recent times, I thought he was okay over the last bit in the Lord Mayor’s Cup; he is a son of Americain and looked like he wanted/needed 2400m next time. Blinkers on. Stockman is a fair dinkum stock horse, how tough is he. The Good Fight is a dyed in the wool Kiwi stayer/two miler.

RACE 8: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1800M)

Dufficy: A nightmare race. I have ended up settling on Welsh Legend who needs a lot to go right from an awkward draw but she is very well weighted here. If she has any luck getting across, I think she’s in the finish. Bottega was on the inside at Scone which wasn’t the place to be and I think that race might be the best formline, although a few of them failed in it including Mr Dependable who I want to forget when he could lead last start. If he gets into a rhythm here, he certainly will go better. Mubariz is the different form and who is hard to line up but the market likes him and he could train on.

O’Cass: Tommy Berry has a great understanding with Mubariz. He has ridden the horse five times for three wins and a placing. The horse is up from a benchmark 78 to a 94 in one leap but he drops down significantly in weight and from barrier 4, he has a chance to get the run of the race. Reckon the two John O’Shea trained greys, La Grisa and Berdibek, can medal here Duff.

Welsh Legend is well weighted and looks a nice chance. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 9: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200M)

Dufficy: Pretty keen on Expat. She is a nice filly on the rise. She should find the lead under her own steam at 1200m here and prove hard to beat. Majestic Shot was very good in the same race as Expat when up in class last time. Just has to produce at 1200m though. Starla was an eye-catcher first-up and is sure to be strong late. Exotic Ruby usually gets better with racing and does no work here from barrier one.

O’Cass: Bring The Ranson bled at Randwick back in December so had the obligatory time on the sidelines. She has two of her four first-up runs and she actually trialled up really well I reckon Duff. She ran last to the aforementioned Matowatakpe in that heat here on May 11 but she was only beaten about three-lengths. The flucs will tell the story with her. Let’s just hope it’s a happy ending. The ‘best’ Lucicello would be in the finish. Hellenism was $26 to win the Kosciuszko. What price if she wins this.

SATURDAY EXTRA

ADAM SHERRY’S TOP PICKS

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 6, No.3 IMPOSING BEAU

Wasn’t disgraced when jumping to city grade second-up when fourth at Kensington after a maiden win at Hawkesbury on debut. Back in grade and will be tough to beat.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.5 KITERRO

Handy third at Hawkesbury two starts back behind Madam Charm who has won again since and was third to Wicklow at Newcastle last start. Extra distance suits.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.3 DREAM ECLIPSE

Progressive gelding who broke through with a handy win last start. Narrowly beaten this track the start prior when a close second. Tricky draw but is a horse going places.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Aaron Bullock may not have a full book of rides but what he does is some quality mounts. He teams up with top trainer John Thompson aboard top-weights Supremo (race 4) and Deep Encounter (race 5) and has the plum ride on Savvy Legend for Everest winning trainer Les Bridge in race 7.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,2,5

Race 6: 2,3,6

Race 7: 1,2, 4,8

Race 8: 1,3,5,10

QUIRINDI

BEST BET

Race 3, No.3 ELLEBEEDEE

Raced well last campaign picking up two wins including a victory here over the 1100m. Nicely drawn and can kick off this campaign on the right note.

NEXT BEST

Race 3, No.3 LOOSE BUTTONS

Came from near last and just peaked 100m out when resuming with a fourth on a heavy track at Taree May 11. Fitter for the run will give a bold sight.

Originally published asShayne and Duff: Caesars Palace to hit jackpot

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