Saturday Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances at Rosehill for the Tancred Stakes meeting.
Race 3, No.1: CHERRY TORTONI
Race 7, No.2: MIRAGE DANCER
Race 8, No.15: SUBEDAR
Race 3, No.1: CHERRY TORTONI
Race 8, No.12: CRIADERAS
R1: THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE (1400M)
Ron Dufficy: With Your Blessing is a nice horse who’s run very well at his two starts. Trainer Joe Pride’s two-year-olds improve with racing and I’m happy to be with him. Converge also comes out of the Pago Pago where he produced a brave run when wide with no cover. He ran a good race and will be fitter. Conrad was very good in fast time last start. He looks an exciting type and I would have had him top pick from a better barrier. Saif has the form on the board with a Group 2 second over 1400m and does have the inside gate.
Ray Thomas: Same four numbers as you, Ronnie, but I have Converge on top. As you noted, he ran a very good race when resuming and can only improve. From his soft gate, he’s going to get all the favours and he’s suited over this trip. I also like the way With Your Blessing has gone in his two runs and he can only keep improving. Saif ran on well in the VRC Sires and has since impressed in a trial on this track. Conrad was brilliant last start and if he gets some luck early he could blow them away.
R2: NEVILLE SELLWOOD STKS (2000M)
Dufficy: There is not much between the top three. I am leaning to Shared Ambition, he presents well back at home. He needs a touch of luck early to slot in but I thought he has done more than enough this preparation and should go close. Master Of Wine is in the right race to find his top form. He’s on the quick back-up and he should be given another chance. Entente owns the race up front and is sure to run well with the rail out 6m. Paths Of Glory has a gear change and there were indications in that recent trial that he is ready to run an improved race.
Thomas: Master Of Wine comes out of the Ranvet where he ran well without luck when sixth and drops back in grade on the quick back-up. Talented stayer and well weighted just 2.5kg over the limit. This is his chance. Entente was dominant in the Albury Cup and will take catching. Shared Ambition will also find this easier than last start and he will be very competitive. Girl Tuesday will enjoy getting back onto a firm track.
R3 (1.55PM): TULLOCH STAKES (2000M)
Dufficy: I’m going with Cherry Tortoni. I thought it was a total forgive run at Moonee Valley last start when the fence was dynamite and that is not his style of track. His second in the Australian Guineas at his previous run was outstanding and he will be a real force. Young Werther comes out of the same Valley race where he ran second and he should be ready to peak now. He did run well when third as favourite in the Victoria Derby last spring. Favreau is an improver with his confidence sky high at the moment. Huge watch on The Frontman who was very good in the New Zealand Derby.
Thomas: Cherry Tortoni is going to enjoy the Rosehill 2000m on a good track and if they run at a genuine tempo, then he is going to be hard to hold out. Promising young stayer with a monster finish. Favreau is racing very well and he was very strong through the line at Kembla Grange last start. Young Werther has worked his way back into form and fitness. I’m wary of The Frontman as often these good New Zealanders race right up to their best at their first runs here.
Ray and Duff are both forgiving Cherry Tortoni. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images
R4 (2.35PM): EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500M)
Dufficy: I’ve ended up with Nimalee, Ray. She has had that beautiful, winning trial since she scored first-up at Rosehill beating Yao Dash who has since won. Nimalee just doesn’t run a bad race. All Saints’ Eve had legitimate excuses in the Coolmore and has more to offer. Krone is right in the zone and gets a lovely draw again. Rich Hips comes out of a race where not much went right and she could easily turn that form around.
Thomas: I read this race the same as you, Duff. Nimalee is a very genuine mare and did a super job to beat subsequent winner Yao Dash and Polly Grey when resuming. Nimalee had a foot abscess and missed a run but she trialled brilliantly at Randwick last week. Drawn to get the right run and she gets 4kg off main rival Krone. It’s impossible to fault Krone who is in career-best form and will be hard to beat again. All Saints’ Eve should have finished closer in the Coolmore and she is ready to peak. Sweet Deal has been disappointing in two runs back and 1500m is as far as she wants but on her best form she would be very competitive.
R5 (3.15PM): STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200M)
Dufficy: California Zimbol has a touch of quality. She is a nice mare with more to offer and will be improved after her first-up win. There are a lot of positives with her. I’m very interested in Signore Fox. He is a real dry-tracker, they have found James McDonald and he has been airborne in three trials. Another dark horse here is Wisdom Of Water. He looked terrific as a two-year-old, then lost his way a little when he went to Melbourne in the spring but he’s in a new stable now and his trials suggest he is back to his two-year-old form. Prime Candidate is always much better second-up from a spell and can run well.
Thomas: One of the most open races — you can make a case of every runner. I’ve gone with Outback Barbie, who at $16 is the rank outsider which is a reflection of the evenness of this field. She’s a talented mare, will settle back in the field but she does have a very good finishing burst. Wisdom Of Water is flying at the trials and is one to watch. Pandemic had excuses last start but is very capable and I wouldn’t be surprised if Peltzer ran an improved race. I’ve left out the favourite, California Zimbol – it’s that sort of race.
California Zimbol will be even better second-up. Picture: AAPSource:AAP
R6 (3.55PM): VINERY STUD STAKES (2000M)
Dufficy: I’m a fan of Harmony Rose. She is an up-and-coming staying filly with a good racing style which she can capitalise on from her inside barrier. She was an excellent third in the Randwick Guineas and the form from that has been franked. Harmony Rose is at short odds but she is the one to beat. Personal is genuine, never runs a bad race, is an Oaks winner and is primed for this race. Hungry Heart returned to her best form on a dry track last start and gets similar conditions today. Miravalle is back in winning form and is a very strong filly.
Thomas: Hungry Heart appreciated a solid tempo and firm track to win the Phar Lap Stakes last start. It was a welcome return to winning form and it sets her up well to break through at Group 1 level here. Harmony Rose is the danger. She was third in the Randwick Guineas behind Lion’s Roar and subsequent Rosehill Guineas winner Mo’unga — which is outstanding form coming back to fillies grade. Miravalle attacked the line to win at Kembla and is a huge threat. Personal is a strong staying filly and if the others have any stamina limitations, she will expose them.
R7 (4.35PM): KIA TANCRED STAKES (2400M)
Dufficy: I like Mirage Dancer. He won The Metropolitan third-up last preparation and goes to 2400m today after two runs back from a spell. He looked superb in the yard last start and ran really well. He maps perfectly here and can’t help but run a good race. The timing is right with Toffee Tongue, fourth-up off a win, she minds her own business from the inside draw and has last look at them again. I’m gambling on that Sky High Stakes form holding up as Shraaoh ran well in that race and I’m convinced he is a knockout chance. Southern France is huge overs, he’s a dry tracker and I thought he did more than enough first-up in a strong race.
Thomas: Angel Of Truth ran a terrific race when third to the superstars Verry Elleegant and Addeybb in the Ranvet Stakes last week. He is not just a wet-tracker and won his Derby two years ago on a seven-day back-up. Looks the leader and should control this race. I also rate Mirage Dancer highly for the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. He looks to be finding form at the right time. Spirit Ridge is an emerging stayer and although not suited at weight-for-age, he’s a fierce competitor. Melody Belle has a magnificent record but 2400m is a query and she has had an issue in training this week which isn’t ideal.
Angel of Truth won the Derby two years ago on the back-up. Picture: AAPSource:AAP
R8 (5.15PM): DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500M)
Dufficy: Subedar has been held back for this race. I love the way he is going in 1200m races as he is racing like a horse that wants a mile. I think he can force his way into the Doncaster Mile by winning the Prelude. Buffalo River was terrific riding the hot speed the other day and has since won a trial by seven lengths. Rock is unbeaten second-up and he presents well today. Purple Sector’s second-up win last preparation was his best when he bolted in at Randwick. This is a terrific race.
Thomas: I’m giving Criaderas another chance. He finally finds a race with genuine speed, a firm tack and lightweight. He disappointed as favourite last start and is out to very generous odds. Rock is also suited by the set-up here and he will be charging home. Bottega was very good first-up at Newcastle but the outside barrier is an issue. Subedar is in great form, Buffalo River will be in front for a long way and Yao Dash drops 7kg after a tough win last start.
R9 (5.50PM): CLEANAWAY HANDICAP (1400M)
Dufficy: If I am tipping Subedar confidently then I have to be with his stablemate Segalas. She was good first-up when second to Subedar and this looks a suitable race for her. She’s at decent odds, too. Nudge was enormous when resuming but she has a wide draw again. Great News was brilliant first-up and is on the way to the Provincial Championships Final but her awkward draw has me second-guessing. Thy Kingdom Come doesn’t win often but has his hoof right on the till judging by recent consistent efforts.
Thomas: Great News was never on the track, had to circle the field but destroyed her rivals in a brilliant first-up effort at Gosford. This is a stronger race but she is a gifted mare with a very good record and despite the awkward draw, will be hard to beat with even luck in running. Nudge and Segalas should both improve off solid first-up runs. European import Zeyek is superbly bred and one to watch.
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
Race 3 No.10: LAST NOT LEAST
Criterion colt on debut in the Sir Owen Glenn colours. Placed on debut at Newcastle and has a bright future.
Race 5 No.6: RUNNING FOUR BUB
John O’Shea mare who has trialled up particularly well ahead of her return with leading Provincial Jockey Keagan Latham on board.
Race 9 No.6: KARMAZONE
Aims to win the Provincial Qualifier first-up but ran two very nice races in a couple of the Heats last year. Can progress with the right run.
Race 6: 1,2,7,8
Race 7: 1,2,9,13
Race 8: 5,6,8,12
Race 9: 5,6,13,16
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Alysha Collett is riding in fantastic order at present and has the steer on Game Of Thorns in the Qualifier.
Race 1 No.4: UNWAVERING FAITH
Progressive filly who is sure to relish the step up in distance after two fine ‘run ons’ here and at Muswellbrook respectively.
Race 3 No.10: SHOORFORTHESTAR
Kris Lees-trained filly who looks locked and loaded to shed the maiden status first-up on the score of two ripper trials.
Race 5 No.9: STORMY PLUCK
Turned in a massive run at her only prior outing over this same track and distance. Has talent on her day.
Race 2 No.9: ZA ZA READY
Joe Cleary filly who had valid excuses for the first-up seventh of 11 at Queanbeyan. It was in fact, a pretty good effort all told. Stick solid.
Race 3 No.2: CIRCUS TRAIN
Ready to win now after back-to-back thirds, finding the line strongly both times.
Race 5 No.5: SPRING SEASON
No better bred horse racing anywhere than this locally-trained son of Sebring out of Private Steer. Monitor any market moves.
Originally published asRay and Duff: Truth to come out on top
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