Rosehill races: Brad Davidson’s tips and extended preview

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets and TAB market movers, for the Rosehill meeting on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

ROSEHILL

Track: Good 4. Rail: +6m 1350m-W/Post, +4m Remainder

RACE 1 2YO HANDICAP (1400M)

Overview: Volcanic Rock is likely to head to Queensland so that will leave Cape Breton a short priced favourite here. He did a good job on debut and this looks a natural progression. Royalzel was a strong winner at Kembla Grange second up and his late sectionals were impressive. He gets the blinkers on for the first time here. Humble Star has won two straight to kick off his career although this is naturally much stronger.

BETTING ADVICE: Royalzel at the odds.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

RACE 2 TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1100M)

Overview: Great edition of the TAB Highway and this looks a great clash between Ice In Vancouver and Nicci Trix. Both horses are coming off good wins and have the big upside factor. Ice In Vancouver is the deserved favourite but he does have a wide draw to overcome with speed drawn inside him. Nicci Trix has trialled the house down since the dominant last start win. Anethole looks the big improver. He battled first up but has some good form last prep and has trialled well since. He will appreciate the likely strong tempo here.

BETTING ADVICE: Nicci Trix on top at the better odds.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:Ice In Vancouver $2-$1.80 ($1,000 @ $2.10)

RACE 3 BENCHMARK 72 (1800M)

Overview:Open race. I thought Always On Show would appreciate the extra trip and she wasn’t far off Too Much Caviar last start. Too Much Caviar was good on speed last start and should find the front again and be hard to get past. Import Wicklow was a good winner first up in maiden grade and he has the upside factor here and should appreciate racing at his new home track.

BETTING ADVICE: Always On Show to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:Wicklow $8-$3.60 ($300 @ $8, $308 @ $7.50, $400 @ $6, $445 @ $5.50, $500 @ $5

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RACE 4 BENCHMARK 72 (1400M)

Overview: Mensa Missile was simply outstanding on a very strong speed last start at this track and he should get an easier time of it here. Scream And Shout has been really good in two wins this prep and his latest sectionals were very strong. This is a much stronger race but he is on the up and just needs to get a run as he is currently an emergency for the race. Adelaide’s Light has a terrific each way chance, while Resilient Star and Key also have claims.

BETTING ADVICE: Mensa Missile to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:Oscar Zulu $8.50-$6.50 ($250 @ $8.50), Key $51-$26

RACE 5 BENCHMARK 78 (1200M)

Overview:Rammstein was ridden perfectly last start and had his chance but this looks easier and he should find the front again. He just doesn’t want a wet track. He’s A Hotshot trialled well leading in and he is another one who doesn’t want a wet track. Charretera’s run was better than it looked first up and he can run on again, while Royal Banquet will have admirers fresh.

BETTING ADVICE:Rammstein to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:Bold And Wild $51-$31, Rammstein $3.50-$3.10 ($700 @ $3.50)

RACE 6 BENCHMARK 78 (1500M)

Overview: Zing hit the line well fresh and the low draw means she can park up closer here. Love Tap has been the one the market has latched onto early and he was okay first-up in Brisbane but should appreciate the extra trip. Steely and Saigon are both improvers back to the 1500m but the latter needs it dry, while Great House has always had a big boom on him and might be able to live up to that this prep. Air To Air has b keen racing out of class of late and also looks suited back in grade.

BETTING ADVICE: Plenty of hopes here with the weather key. Saigon is not hopeless at odds.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:Love Tap $7-$3.60 ($350 @ $6.50, $400 @ $6, $450 @ $5.50, $500 @ $4.80, $1,500 @ $4), Zing $6.50-$5.50 ($300 @ $6.50, $1,300 @ $6)

Parry Sound will appreciate a step up in distance and can break through in the Winter Cup. Picture: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph

RACE 7 WINTER CUP (2400M)

Overview: Parry Sound is struggling to win of late but he has been crying out for 2400m and maps well here. Stockman drops a stack in weight but he has drawn the car park and is likely to give them a big start. Knights Order went too fast early last start and can improve third up after being specked at both runs this prep. The Good Fight and Inverloch also have claims.

BETTING ADVICE: Parry Sound to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Stockman $8-$5.50

RACE 8 BENCHMARK 94 (1800M)

Overview: Mubariz was a good winner at this track and distance last start and he is a horse heading in the right direction. La Grisa put in a real eye catching run fresh and the extra trip suits. The query is the wide barrier and just how big a start she has to give some of these. Welsh Legend, Spencer, Pandano, Costello and Monsieur Sisu will all have admirers.

BETTING ADVICE:I have a bit more work to do on this race but Mubariz is going great guns.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:No bets or movements of note

Flashy gelding Mubariz looks a great chance to make it back-to-back wins. Picture: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph

RACE 9 BENCHMARK 78 (1200M)

Overview: Starla is a low percentage horse due to her get back pattern but she is flying and should be strong late again. Expat should be nice and aggressive early from the low draw and the 1200m trip will be no issue. Sahra was caught wide without cover last start and can improve off that.

BETTING ADVICE: Starla and Sahra both run well at odds.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Majestic Shot $8-$6.50 ($300 @ $8), Hellenism $15-$16-$15 ($200 e/w @ $16/$4.40)

Originally published asDavo’s tips: Watch out for Waller

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