Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant odds, predictions, betting trends for 2021 boxing match

There will be only one champion at super middleweight on November 6 in Las Vegas when WBA (Super), WBC and WBO champion Canelo Alvarez faces IBF titleholder Caleb Plant with all the belts on the line.

Canelo is widely recognized as the best fighter in the world and has plans to further cement his place in boxing history against Plant with 168-pound supremacy on the line. 

The journey for Canelo (56-1-2, 38 KOs) began in December 2020 when he pummeled Callum Smith to a one-sided unanimous decision to claim the vacant WBC and WBC titles. In his last outing, Canelo stopped Billy Joe Saunders to add the WBO title to his collection. And now his eyeballing Plant’s IBF title to become undisputed in less than a year’s time. 

Plant (21-0, 12 KOs) won the IBF title back in 2019 when he beat José Uzcátegui by unanimous decision. He’s made three successful title defenses but will have the toughest challenge of his entire career standing in front of him. But Plant looks to prove that he’s one of the best fighters in the world by becoming the undisputed super middleweight champion and shocking the world by defeating Canelo.

Sporting News provides the current odds and offers some insight on how to bet on Canelo-Plant. 

Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant odds

According to odds from FanDuel , Canelo is a massive favorite at -1250, which means it will take a wager of $1250 to see a profit of $100. Plant is a significant underdog at +630 underdog, so a $100 wager would net $630.  

Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant prop bets

Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant prediction

Canelo Alvarez is widely recognized as the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world courtesy of his impeccable resume and supreme boxing ability. His dominance over previously unbeaten fighters Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders only strengthened his grasp on top of the boxing world. 

However, betting on Canelo as a -1250 favorite is absurd. 

Canelo should absolutely be the betting favorite but this line is meant for fighters who don’t have a shot at winning. Plant has at least a shot. It may not be a great one but the fighter from Nashville is highly skilled and has the ability to pull off the upset.  

That doesn’t mean to go out and bet on Plant because he has yet to show that he is able to hang with a fighter the caliber of Canelo. But it does mean that the betting lines make it extremely difficult to make money unless you get very specific with your wager. 

Canelo has made a habit out of beating undefeated fighters and having one-sided performances. Both Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders were reduced to speed bumps on Canelo’s road to greatness as both provided very little opposition. Plant will need the offensive firepower to keep Canelo busy as the Mexican superstar often takes rounds to figure out his opponent’s strategy before going on the offensive. And if Plant is able to mix up his approach, he could keep Canelo off balance long enough to make the scorecards interesting. 

But that’s asking a lot out of Plant. Especially considering that Canelo, for some reason, is incensed to put a beating on his November 6 opponent. Ever since their press conference in September that resulted in a shove from Canelo and swipes by both parties, Canelo has made it a point to suggest that he’ll put a hurting on Plant. 

It’s a little out of character for Canelo to act this way but it could mean that he is going to crank up the aggression early and often against Plant. When Canelo was annoyed with Saunders, he broke his orbital bone. And he was just irritated for that fight. He clearly doesn’t like Plant and doesn’t seem to be interested in seeing this fight go to the judges. And if Plant wants to keep an angry Canelo off of him, he’s going to need to gain his respect by stinging him early in the fight. 

Unfortunately, Plant is not a big puncher and Canelo has absorbed power shots from Gennady Golovkin in two fights without ever touching the canvas. Plant is going to have to do something different or else he’s going to be in for a long night. Plant has also shown that he slows down later in the fight, as evidenced against Uzcategui. If Canelo’s body punching has its say, Plant might be forced to slow down earlier than he’d like to.

It’s really up to Plant to determine how long this fight goes. But without the power to alter Canelo’s approach, this fight could get ugly. Canelo isn’t a one-punch knockout artist but he is the kind of finisher who uses volume to brutalize a wounded opponent until either the referee or the corner calls it off. Plant will likely prove that he’s too tough for his own good and Canelo will overwhelm him late for a stoppage to become the true king of the 168-pound division. 

Sporting News prediction: Canelo Alvarez by (T)KO (-160)

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